What to do about… Nick Castellanos

One of my favorite prospects, and now one of my favorite players, Nick Castellanos is in this midst of a hot streak that has seen him raise his slash line from .253/.305/.397 on August 9th to .263/.312/.411 as of August 27th. Selective endpoints and all that, but I thought his recent stretch, combined with an overall mediocre season was worth taking a look at to determine what type of value he’ll hold. Basically, we’re asking the question that Herm Edwards answered years ago: Is he who we thought he was?

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2014 Has Been a Disastrous Year for Elite Prospects

We had a bumper crop of elite prospects to play with this Spring. We had visions of new players joining our rosters and playing like the next Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig. The consensus Top 12 prospects this year were as good as we have ever seen. The excitement was at a fever pitch for prospect hounds like us, but the season ended up being a tremendous letdown. Some of it was due to injuries, while most of it was due to flat out poor performance. It just goes to show that patience is key when it comes to prospects — even the elite “can’t miss” prospects often struggle when they reach the majors.

For this discussion let’s focus on what I consider to be the consensus top 12. These are the guys that were ranked at the top of nearly every major list that was published last offseason. We will go down the list and review each prospect. The theme of the day is disappointment. Every guy on this list except for one or two had a disappointing season for one reason or another…

1. Byron Buxton, OF Twins

Buxton has been touted as the next Mike Trout, an all around superstar 5 tool talent. His season has been absolutely destroyed by injuries. He sprained his wrist early in Spring Training and was forced to sit out until May, then he played 5 games and re-injured the wrist again. He had to sit out another two months. He played 30 games at High A Fort Myers but didn’t perform as well as he did last year. His .718 OPS wasn’t too impressive but you could still see the talent and tools in action and see a future superstar. On August 13th he got promoted to AA and what happens? He got hurt in his very first game. He suffered a bad concussion during a diving collision in the outfield. Buxton is still an elite talent and a future star but this season was a total bust. Continue reading

Digging for Diamonds: Low Minors First Base Ballers (2014 Mid-Season Edition)

If you’ve been reading this site for a while you know that I’ve got a bit of a fetish for first base prospects. They almost never get national prospect love on account of their defensive limitations, and that in turn leads to an ever-present opportunity for dynasty league owners to pounce on undervalued assets. Back in October I wrote about some low-minors first base prospects that had my eye heading into this season, and now that we’re closing in on the end of the season here are a few next wave guys who’ve caught my eye in the low minors. Obviously all the standard caveats about stats in the low minors apply here, and unless you’re in a very, very deep league none of these guys are likely to be candidates to draft just yet this off-season. But all of them should be squarely on your radar heading into next season, as they represent some of the most intriguing performances from minor league first basemen in 2014.

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#TDGX Transaction Report: My FAAB is on Fiers

You’ve been following TDGX. You love TDGX. We all love TDGX.  And every week here at The Dynasty Guru, I am going to be bringing you commentary from our flagship experts’ league, directly from the participants themselves.

The goal here is to give you insight into the moves made by our group of experts so that you can use this information the next time you need to make a trade or prominent FA move in your league. So let’s not mess around with too much longer of an introduction. We’re going to break this up into three sections: trades, major league additions, minor league additions.

TRADES

(Post trade-deadline)

MAJOR LEAGUE FA PICKUPS

Bret Sayre adds Mike Fiers for $31

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Trader’s Corner: TDGR Trade Deadline

If you are a regular reader of TDG, then you are aware of the TDGX experts’ dynasty league. It’s a 20-team dynasty league with 40-man rosters of which we protect 35 players. What you may not know is that a group of readers set up a league that mirrors TDGX and is made up of readers from this site. The TDGR league recently had its trade deadline, just like TDGX, and we were sent some of the moves that were made for this post.

For some more league context the 40-man roster consists of 14 hitters, 9 pitchers, a 7-man bench, and 10 minor league spots. The bench can be composed of either major or minor league eligible players. Scoring is standard 5×5 categories and there is one catcher slot along with two utility slots. Players may be kept forever with no penalty or contract system in place. A big thank you to TDGR member ‘Kris’ for sending in what I think are some really interesting transactions. Here are the trades… Continue reading

Trade Targets: Strasburg, Leake and Odorizzi are Undervalued Pitchers

Here are some pitchers whose perceived value is less than their real value. Each of them is a solid trade target right now because you might be able to get them at a discount compared to what it will cost you in the offseason. These guys will be ranked highly on cheat sheets next Spring. Let’s dive right in…

Stephen Strasburg — Washington Nationals

9 Wins, 194 Ks in 163 innings, 3.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP

Strasburg’s 3.53 ERA is easily the worst of his career and ranks him only 44th out of 93 qualifying starting pitchers in the majors. Is Strasburg really only a middle of the pack starting pitcher this year? Well, his 2.94 FIP is 16th in the league, his 2.51 xFIP is 3rd (behind only Kershaw and King Felix) and his 2.62 SIERA is 4th in baseball. You know how much I like K%-BB% and Strasburg’s is 5th in baseball at a stellar 23.2%, which is the best in his career for a full season. In fact, pretty much every one of Strasburg’s peripheral stats is better than his career averages. What does this mean? It means he has been pitching better than ever despite the fact that 26 starting pitchers are ranked higher than him in 5×5 roto leagues. Strasburg has a losing record again this year just like he did last year, but much of that is because the Nationals rarely score many runs behind him. His 4.42 runs per game of run support is 70th in the league this year. The Nationals’s below average Defensive Efficiency Rating of .700 is not doing Strasburg any favors either. His .336 BABIP is 40 points higher than his pre-2014 career average and is likely to come down as the season progresses. His ERA and WHIP will improve right along with his BABIP. Continue reading

Digging for Diamonds: Scouting the Cape League

It’s never too early to get a jump on planning for your dynasty squad’s future, particularly in the middle of August if you happen to be at the helm of a team whose ship has already sailed in the current season. And one of the best opportunities for longer-term planning presents itself annually out on Cape Cod, where a solid majority of the nation’s best and brightest soon-to-be-draft-eligible collegiate players congregate for their first taste of wood bat baseball. I made my annual pilgrimage out to the land of mackerel bones and sand last week and caught home-and-home series of Brewster-Harwich and Chatham-Orleans. In the process I managed to squeeze in looks at a handful of players that should be high on your deep league follow lists heading into the spring college season and next year’s draft. Below are my scouting reports on some of the more intriguing fantasy prospects I was able to put eyes on, along with some notes about their future potential fantasy value.

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